Blue Bird (BLBD)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary

Blue Bird Crushes Q1 as EV Bus Leader Raises Guidance, Stock Surges After Hours

February 4, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

Blue Bird Corporation delivered another blowout quarter, posting its highest-ever Q1 revenue and Adj. EBITDA while extending its remarkable earnings beat streak to 9 consecutive quarters. The school bus manufacturer beat EPS estimates by 25% and raised full-year EBITDA guidance, sending shares up 8% in after-hours trading despite a down day during regular hours.

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Did Blue Bird Beat Earnings?

Yes — decisively. Blue Bird crushed both revenue and EPS expectations:

Consensus estimates from MarketBeat

CEO John Wyskiel called it "an exceptional Adj. EBITDA of $50M / 15% for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, a new all-time first-quarter record for the Company."

13 Straight Quarters of Beating Guidance

Blue Bird's consistency is remarkable. CEO Wyskiel emphasized: "We have beat guidance for the last 13 quarters, validating the strength in our management and business model." They've also beaten consensus EPS and revenue for 9 consecutive quarters:

Data from MarketBeat

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What Did Management Guide?

Full-year EBITDA guidance raised; revenue maintained:

CFO Razvan Radulescu emphasized confidence: "Our business is in a very strong position and we continue to deliver ahead of the plan we have been messaging."

Quarterly Guidance Breakdown

Solid H1 at ~14% margin, with profitable growth expected to accelerate in H2.

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Q&A Highlights

The analyst Q&A provided additional color on key topics:

Margin Drivers

When asked about the margin improvement, CFO Razvan Radulescu broke it down: "About two-thirds came from pricing and about one-third... is from better efficiency and quality." The efficiency and quality gains are "sustaining improvements" that will persist, while pricing effects from the November model year increase will flow through in H2.

Tariff Pass-Through

Blue Bird is successfully maintaining margin neutrality on tariffs: "Our tariffs for internal combustion are now below $5,000 per bus, but the EVs are above $10,000 per bus." The company is providing fixed tariff pricing through June for future deliveries.

Commercial Chassis Timing Update

The first order of 30 commercial chassis units was booked in January. However, production SOP has shifted to late Q4, pushing revenue recognition into FY2027 Q1. CEO Wyskiel emphasized: "Our focus... is to get this product right from a design, cost, and quality perspective and not force timing."

Capital Allocation Strategy

With a record $385M liquidity position, management discussed future optionality. CFO Radulescu noted: "Maybe in the future, we could evaluate a dividend program, but we are not quite there yet." The company continues to prioritize buybacks ($95M remaining authorization), strategic M&A, and vertical integration opportunities.

Propane's Staying Power

CEO Wyskiel highlighted propane's enduring appeal: "From a marketplace, they still recognize propane as the best total cost of operation." The ease of infrastructure deployment (propane sellers install infrastructure as part of fuel contracts) remains a key advantage vs. EV.

Diesel Pull-Forward Risk

A potential pre-buy dynamic may emerge due to 2027 emission regulations uncertainty. CFO Radulescu noted: "We may see a little bit pre-buy or a pull forward for some diesel units into this year."

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What Changed From Last Quarter?

Revenue Drivers

• Bus sales up $19.5M (+6.8%) driven by 6.5% higher average selling price per unit and 0.2% volume growth
• Pricing actions implemented to offset tariff-related import cost increases
• Parts sales down $0.3M (-1.2%) due to product/channel mix variations

Margin Expansion

• Gross profit margin expanded — Gross profit of $71.2M vs. $60.3M last year (+$10.9M)
• Adj. EBITDA margin improved 40 bps to 15.0% from 14.6%

Electric Vehicle & Alternative Power Progress

• 121 electric buses delivered in Q1 FY26
• 855 EV buses in firm order backlog worth $277M in revenue
• Alternative power sales mix reached 48% of total units — continuing transition away from diesel
• State EV funding strong — $1.5B in funding across New York, California, Oregon, Illinois, and Michigan
• EPA Clean School Bus funding intact — Rounds 2 & 3 flowing; Rounds 4 & 5 remain intact despite media misinterpretation. Additionally, $80M DOE MESC grant for new plant remains intact.
• Company remains the "undisputed leader" in electric and low-emission school buses

Backlog & New Business

• Total backlog: 3,367 units valued at $602M in revenue
• First commercial chassis order received in January 2026 — new market expansion

Balance Sheet Strength

• Cash: $241.7M (up $105.6M vs. Q1 FY25)
• Total liquidity: $385.0M (up $105.6M vs. prior year)
• Total debt: $89.1M (down $4.7M vs. prior year)
• Operating cash flow: $36.6M (up from $26.4M prior year)
• Adj. Free cash flow: $31.1M (up from $21.8M prior year)
• $15M stock buyback executed this quarter — returning capital to shareholders

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How Did the Stock React?

Down during regular hours, surging after hours:

The after-hours surge reflects investor enthusiasm for the earnings beat and guidance raise. The stock is trading near its 50-day moving average of $50.29.

Key metrics:

• 52-week range: $30.04 - $61.95
• Market cap: ~$1.58B
• Analyst target: $64.60 average

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Key Management Quotes

CEO John Wyskiel on consistency:

"We have beat guidance for the last 13 quarters, validating the strength in our management and business model."

CEO on the EV outlook:

"EVs are a perfect fit for school buses when you look at the duty cycle, available charging intervals, range, and the proven health benefits for our children."

CEO on government funding:

"From our subsequent discussions in Washington, there has been no such indication [of EPA rounds 4 and 5 discontinuation]. It is our understanding that the EPA is still working through how and when these funds will be administered."

CEO on Blue Bird's heritage:

"This great company and iconic brand is almost 100 years old. Blue Bird has stood the test of time... I remain excited about Blue Bird, and we had a great start for 2026."

CFO Razvan Radulescu on margin drivers:

"About two-thirds came from pricing and about one-third, more or less, is from better efficiency and quality."

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CEO's Updated 4-Pillar Strategy

As CEO Wyskiel approaches his 1-year anniversary at Blue Bird, he outlined a refreshed strategic framework:

1. Business Continuity & Long-Term Stability — Investing in manufacturing facilities and products, including the new assembly plant launching in 2028. "Infrastructure and competitive products are an essential part of our plan."

2. Profitable Growth — Beyond organic school bus market growth (6% CAGR projected), expanding TAM through new adjacencies like Commercial Chassis and Micro Bird JV's America Shuttle Bus.

3. Margin Expansion — Advancing automation (Industry 3.0) and Factory of the Future initiatives (Industry 4.0). "We are on a good path in this area with a strong automation roadmap that will be incorporated into our new assembly plant."

4. Putting the Balance Sheet to Work — "Blue Bird has strong liquidity and generates solid cash flows. Our balance sheet position allows us to be strategically opportunistic." Options include acquisitions and vertical integration.

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Forward Catalysts

1. EV Bus Adoption — 855 EV buses in backlog now extending into 2027; positioned as market leader in zero-emission school transportation. Close to 1,000 EVs sold or in backlog combined.

2. Margin Expansion Path — Clear roadmap to 16%+ EBITDA margins from current 15%; H2 FY26 margins expected at 15-16%

3. Revenue Growth — Targeting ~$2B revenue long-term, up from current ~$1.5B run rate

4. Pricing Power — Successfully passing through tariff costs with minimal unit volume impact

5. Strong Cash Generation — FCF of $31M in Q1; liquidity of $385M provides flexibility

6. Commercial Chassis Market Entry — First commercial chassis order received in January 2026; long-term target of 1,000-1,500+ chassis units annually

7. Capital Returns — $15M buyback executed in Q1; demonstrating commitment to shareholder value

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Risks to Watch

• Tariff Exposure — Continued price increases needed to offset import costs could pressure demand
• SG&A Growth — Expenses up $6.3M YoY due to R&D and labor cost increases
• Seasonality — Q1 is typically the weakest quarter; results need to be sustained through peak selling season
• EV Execution — Must deliver on 855 EV backlog to meet FY26 targets
• Competitor Normalization — A competitor's supply issues have resolved, potentially normalizing market share that Blue Bird temporarily gained

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The Bottom Line

Blue Bird continues its remarkable run of outperformance. The Q1 FY2026 results mark 9 consecutive quarters of beating estimates — a streak that few industrial companies can match. The combination of a 25% EPS beat, raised guidance, and strong EV positioning makes this quarter a clear positive for shareholders.

The after-hours surge of 8% suggests the market agrees. With a clear path to $2B revenue and 16%+ EBITDA margins, Blue Bird's transformation from legacy bus manufacturer to EV leader appears firmly on track.

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Earnings call held 4:30 PM ET on February 4, 2026. Access transcript

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Related:

• Blue Bird Company Profile
• Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript
• Q4 FY2025 Earnings Analysis